On a mouth-watering day of international rugby, when England square off with the mighty All Blacks, Ireland battle Australia, the world champion Springboks face a buoyant Italy and France welcome Fiji to Bordeaux, it’s the distinctly lower-key Wales v Japan contest that might just be the most important of the lot.
Wales’s woes are well documented. On the field, any sliver of hope that could be extracted from finally ending their soul-destroying 18-game losing streak by beating Japan in the second match of a two-Test series over the summer was seemingly snuffed out last week. A record 52-28 defeat to Argentina in Cardiff served as a scarcely-needed reminder to new coach Steve Tandy just what a mountainous task lies ahead of him on the road back to international rugby respectability.
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Meanwhile, the threats are even more existential off the pitch. The Welsh Rugby Union (WRU) – not too long ago damned as an institutionally sexist, racist and homophobic and dysfunctional organisation by an independent report – has announced controversial plans to cut one of the four perennially underfunded and under-performing Welsh regions.
It is not year clear which of the four, or indeed precisely when or how, leaving players completely in the dark over their professional futures.
That brief summary of the issues doesn’t even include the recent narrowly-avoided strike from senior players over a contractual dispute, or the union having to take over the running of one of the regions, Cardiff, after they went bust.
Amid the chaos and the fact that simply any win would be gratefully seized by a beleaguered rugby nation, there is another purely sporting reason why this weekend’s rematch with the Brave Blossoms at Principality Stadium is so important: World Cup seeding.
Wales were knocked out in the quarter-finals at the last World Cup (Getty Images)
The expanded 2027 tournament is now less than two years away and in response to heavy criticism during the 2023 edition that World Rugby had caused a lopsided tournament by conducting the draw ludicrously early, the global governing body has learned its lesson. This time, it is only conducting the draw quite early, 22 months before it begins.
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Still, some improvement is undoubtedly better than none. 23 of the enlarged 24-team field have already been decided and the final qualifier — likely to be Samoa — will be known by the time the balls are drawn out of pots on 3 December. The autumn internationals will also have been concluded by that point, meaning sides have just a couple more games to improve their world ranking and potentially earn promotion to a higher band, theoretically leading to an easier draw.
The 24-team format will see six groups of four drawn, with each group winner, group runner-up and the four best third-placed teams qualifying for the new, additional knockout round – the round of 16.
The 24 World Cup qualifiers will be split into bands of six, determined by their world ranking, with one team from each of the four bands drawn into each group.
As it stands, Wales are ranked 12th in the world, meaning they would be the final team in band two. The team currently lying 13th and eager to leapfrog them into that second tier? Japan.
Wales and Japan squared off twice over the summer (Getty Images)
It sets up what is essentially a winner-takes-all clash on Saturday afternoon. Should Tandy’s troops beat their visitors, they will lock in a place in band two, regardless of results against New Zealand and South Africa across the following fortnight.
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Should they lose however, they will be consigned to band three unless they pull off the most improbable of victories over the All Blacks or Springboks. This young Welsh side are trying to lay the early foundations of future success but Saturday is no time to bank valuable lessons in defeat – this is must-win rugby, clawing a victory however it comes.
For their part, Japan could lose to Wales and then beat Georgia next weekend to sneak back into band two at the expense of the Lelos, depending on margins of victory, but their simplest route to an easier draw is to triumph in Cardiff.
Suggesting it would be an easier draw if you’re in band two rather than band three is not to disrespect any team – who have all deservedly earned their spot at the World Cup – but, if they were being candid, every player and coach would admit to rather facing a USA, Chile or Spain than an Australia, Scotland or Fiji. That’s the level of difference that one spot in the world rankings can make, given the size of the bandings.
Steve Tandy faces a big job to turn the Welsh ship around (PA Wire)
The fact that four of the six third-place teams will reach the World Cup knockout stage does add something of a safety net to the group phase but avoiding a horror draw such as the All Blacks or the Springboks in the last 16, by sealing a top-two placing, must also be a consideration.
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A group-stage exit if Wales, for example finished third in their group but with too poor a points difference to qualify for the last 16, would be disastrous.
Tandy, and his highly-regarded coaching staff, will surely get Wales back on the right track in time but face a genuinely high-stakes encounter in just their second game at the helm. The Principality Stadium is unlikely to be full, and it may not generate the same headlines as other clashes, but 80 minutes on Saturday could have a big say in Welsh rugby’s future.
Published Date : 2025-11-14 07:15:00
Source : sports.yahoo.com
