Can weather cost you a fantasy football win?

If you’ve ever lost a fantasy football matchup by a point or two — or even an excruciating fraction of a point — you might be looking for every possible advantage. New research from HeatRadar, a sports analytics website, suggests that weather impacts are worth paying attention to.

HeatRadar analyzed 14 seasons of NFL games, from 2012 through 2025, comparing each team’s performance in various weather conditions against its own outdoor-game results in calm, dry weather during the same season.

Frustrated by the lack of detailed rainfall data in the NFL’s official game statistics, HeatRadar took matters into its own hands. The team compiled hourly rainfall estimates from the Open-Meteo historical archive, matching them to stadium locations and calculating precipitation totals during games.

Among the key findings:

• Wind impacts start at 12 mph: At 12 to 15 mph, completion percentage falls by 2.5 percentage points. At 16 to 19 mph, yards per pass attempt drop 9.2 percent.
• Strong winds lead to more rushing attempts: Teams run 10.2 percent more often in winds of 20 mph or greater, but don’t necessarily run more effectively.
• Rain hurts passing accuracy and efficiency: In rainy games, completion percentage falls 5.8 percentage points, yards per attempt drop 10 percent, and passing touchdown rate declines 17.5 percent.
• How hard it rains matters: Less than 0.10 inches of rain has little impact. But 0.10 to 0.25 inches reduces completion percentage by 6 percentage points, yards per attempt by 10 percent, and touchdown rate by 15 percent.
• Snow shifts offenses toward the running game: Passing attempts decline 8.8 percent. Rushing attempts increase 12.8 percent and yards per carry rise by 10.4 percent. However, the sample is relatively small, and the results include the effects of wind.

One interesting takeaway is that wind and rain don’t necessarily cause teams to throw the ball much less. Instead, quarterbacks tend to become less accurate and less productive, potentially costing fantasy players valuable points.

The bottom line for fantasy players: Don’t overreact to a little wind or drizzle. But when sustained winds reach 12 to 15 mph or higher, or meaningful rainfall is expected, the weather may be worth factoring into your lineup decisions.